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To What Extend Can We Improve Project Estimation Techniques

Literature Review:

As the initial guidelines are very preliminary information, this estimate should be revised during the design, to verify that the product meets pre-determined costs. Thus, it is important that the development of projects to be done with some control on the part of designers to follow the guidelines adopted in the preparation of estimates and not go beyond the resources provided for its execution. Of course, during the breakdown product, modifications may be suggested, but to be incorporated, the cost changes should also be investigated in order to obtain a real improvement of the product. After the preparation of the projects, you can perform the detailed budget for the project, indicating the quantitative and the costs of all the services that make it up. Such amounts will be checked during the work, generating information that the costs of planning a new venture (Adeli, and Wu, 1998). Buy academic writing services from experts.

According to Mak, & Picken, (2000) the cost estimate is a prediction for the implementation or not of a particular project. More than a help to entrepreneurs to verify the economic and financial feasibility, the cost estimate may also support other decision-making about the product to be developed, such as the definition of the technology to be employed and the architectural design to be designed (Kim, An, and Kang, 2004). As this prediction is made at a stage where they have little information about the project, as Isherwood, (1999) to produce these estimates, it is necessary to use parameters coming from similar projects previously made. According to Kim, An and Kang (2004), the attributes of a cost estimate are:

  • Precision
  • Ease and speed in the development of prognostic tool;
  • Provide the cost value quickly;
  • Be able to understand the process used to determine which factors can vary and what their influence on predicted costs;
  • Can easily update the data they based the development of the method.
 

 

The most traditional method of estimating cost is the direct correlation between the costs per square meter of a project, done previously, with the area of ​​the new venture. However, it is known that such a correlation is very weak, and can provide an inaccurate cost value (Elliott, 2002). Thus, the search for new methods that result in more accurate values, and have the attributes listed above, has been the subject of many works in the cost area worldwide. As discussed earlier, the information used to direct costs come from parameters that have about the product design, i.e. the information of projects. To find out which information is available to prepare a cost estimate, one should analyse the design process and identify which stage such a study is done. Thus, the identified phase products will be those which can be used as input data of the prediction. You can order dissertation online.

According to the Oberlender, (1993) the budget includes the cost of the work estimated allocated to individual work items in order to establish cost parameters that can measure the performance of the enterprise. The preparation of a full budget is done following the assumption that to predict the cost of a project more accurately, one can fractionate the work in parts, provided that they can have their costs easily evaluated. Thus, taking up projects that allow the division of the work into smaller parts, or services, you can make the most accurate survey of the resources needed to carry out these services (Mak, & Picken, 2000). Buy assignment writing help by Hire Researcher.

Thus, the total amount of direct costs of construction, generated from a budget is given by the sum of the cost of all work services. To predict the cost of a given service, Elliott, (2002) reports that are input data: the hand labour productivity coefficients, consumption of materials and equipment hourly consumption; the unit price values ​​for each input; and the amount of service. According to Isherwood, (1999), the multiplication of the quantity of a service by its unit cost, results in the cost of this service. The unit cost, in turn, is given by the product of the indicator unit consumption (or productivity) of each input that makes up the service, the corresponding unit prices. For assistance buy cheap essay writing service.

Kim, An, and Kang, (2004) also reports that during the calculation of cost of services, it is important to know the product to be carried out and the process employed, because, depending on the technology used in its execution, one can have different hand- consumption labour, equipment and materials. Considering the subfloor service on slab, for example, the cost of this service may vary when considering the different processes used: x adhered non-adhered; using x industrialized mortar made in work which, in turn, can use different dosages. Hire the best coursework writing service.

 

Risk Estimation:

The risk identification objectives are (1) to identify and categorize risks that may affect the project and (2) to document these risks. The result of risk identification is the'Risk List'. What will be done with the Risk List depends on the nature of the risks and project. In less complex projects, low cost and little uncertainty (low risk), the risks should be managed as simply a list of items with'red flag.' In complex projects, high cost, the nature of which involves significant uncertainties, risks can feed a rigorous evaluation process, analysis, planning and mitigation, allocation, monitoring and updating (Akinci, Burcu, and Fischer 1998) thesis writing help are available online. 

The risk identification process should stop or be brief evaluation or analysis risks so as not to inhibit the identification of risks'minor'. The process should promote creative ideas and enjoy the experience and knowledge of the team. In practice, however, risk identification and risk assessment are usually carried out in a single step in a process that can be called risk assessment. For example, if a risk is identified in the interview process to a specialist, it would be logical now seek information about the likelihood, consequences and impacts, time associated with the risk (ex: when it might occur) and possible ways of dealing with situation. The latest actions are already part of the risk assessment, but usually start the risk identification process (Wakelam et al., 2005). Buy research paper writing service from the professionals.

The risk identification process begins with the compilation of project risks by Responsible team. This process varies depending on the nature of the project and skills of the members of the risk management team, but most processes ID begin with an examination of the issues and concerns brought by staff project development. Project risk can be identified in several ways, and at least the team should start by examining specific documentation of the project and the program documents. Various techniques are available to facilitate risk identification after reviewing these documents: brainstorming, planning scenarios, and interviews with experts are tools commonly used in the tasks routine project management (Mulholland, & Christian, 1999).

The method of'nominal group' another tool widely used, allows each team member to create your individual list. The Delphi method is a process in which each team member lists, individually and anonymously, potential risks and their inputs. Crawford Slip method allows the team list individually up to 10 risks, which are then divided by the team in several categories and registered by category. Nominal Group, Delphi, Crawford Slip and influence diagrams also serve as good risk assessment tools, which usually confused with risk identification.

Following a failed relationship identified in construction activity that could be mostly avoided. Thus, it is evident the lack of command and control of the project within the areas of planning, HR, procurement, engineering, among others.

 

Planning

  • Lack of forecasting own hand labour and contracted;
  • Lack of forecast material;
  • Oversize services;
  • Hand labour overestimated;
  • Planning errors of activities;
  • Lack of equipment;
  • Lack of definition in the planning;

Project

  • Lack of executive project at work;
  • Lack of detail and definition of the project;
  • Project Change Unknown;
  • Inaccessible facilities;
  • Project Complexity difficult to understand;
  • Project Incompatibility;

Labour

  • Lack of skilled manpower own and contracted;
  • Low production;
  • High Absenteeism;
  • Lack of experience/ training;

Material

  • Missing material;
  • Material delivered late;
  • Delay with imported material retention at customs;
  • Poor quality of the material;
  • Material not informed on the project;

General

  • Adverse weather conditions;
  • Changing the schedule without notice;
  • Antecedent task Delay;
  • Problems during the execution of the service;
  • Rework.

In order to identify these and other causes in advance minimize the impact with respect to cost, time and quality of the project. However, when these events cannot be perceived and occur unexpectedly, the adoption of specific corrective actions at the root causes of these problems reduces the variability around the project planning (Yi, and Langford, 2006).

 

Time Estimation:

The crossing of the nine knowledge areas and the five groups listed processes the PMBOK® points forty-four project management processes. Considering the complexity and the demand of time and resources for the collection and analysis of data for all these processes, the depth and detail required to study case, it was decided in this research by focus groups of planning, control and execution and the following areas of knowledge: managements of time and costs, constitute is obvious determinants of success or failure of a project; management of human resources, due to the notorious and significant dependence of labour on execution of construction projects; in addition to managing the acquisition, through which the project is provided with material resources and outsourcing services, essential factors for production (Gong, and Hugsted, 1993).

The project time management combines processes that enable the delivery of the project within the agreed time. Among the processes, are to determine the sequence in which the activities will be developed, the estimate of the resources needed to implement each of these, as well as the time and the development schedule. PMI (2004) recalls that in smaller scope projects such processes are considered a single. The control schedule is also included among the time management processes. A widely used tool for estimating activity resources in civil engineering are published indexes such as TCPO. The TCPO - Price Composition Tables for Budgets - is a database where you can find the quantities of inputs necessary to make a work of service unit (Bartusch, Möhring, and Radermacher, 1988) The schedule will provide the baseline of the project, i.e., the start and end dates planned for each project activity, to be used for the progress of control project. Determine the exact conditions for the project to be completed or completed. Before it is absolutely clear what the objectives of the project, it makes sense to start to estimate how long it will take and how much it will cost. Unfortunately, many project managers fail to not examine this crucial first step (Senouci, and Eldin, 2004).

Take inventory of all the work that needs to be done with an estimate of the time required for a single team member. This can be done in a planning session with all team members. Tasks that take a long time to finish need to be broken into smaller tasks. The result is work breakdown structure - WBS. Make sure you have indicated the project deliverables in the WBS so that project objectives are achieved. Identify the resources needed to perform each terminal element of the WBS (each task). At this point you can estimate the cost to deliver each terminal element and, consequently, the entire project (bottom-up approach). Decide if this plan makes sense, that is, whether the costs justify the benefits and modify the objectives and work as needed (Callahan, Quackenbush, and Rowings, 1992).

Calculate the minimum time to run the project: is the longest path through the project network (PERT) the beginning of the project to its end. This path is called the critical path. The Other tasks can be done in parallel to the critical path, but any delay in the critical path tasks automatically result in a delay of the total time to complete the project, unless you make a corresponding reduction in the duration of the successor activities to activities that delayed, usually this reduction implies an increase in the project cost (Chan, and Kumaraswamy, 1996).

  • Create a project schedule, for example, using a Gantt chart.
  • Make a risk management plan and modify the design according to this plan.
  • Get the organization's commitment to start the project execution.

Project planning is not something to be done only once in the project from the beginning. Observe the progress of your team and properly update the project plan should be a constant task of the project manager. A software project management can be useful if used correctly. There are several project management standards that describe in detail how to plan and manage a project (Gould, and Joyce, 2009). 

 

 


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